A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
Despite increasing calls for a delay, the first public hearings in the inquiry into nurse Lucy Letby are due to get underway on Tuesday (September 10). The Thirlwall Inquiry’s aim is to establish just how Letby was able to murder seven babies and attempt to kill six more during her time at the Countess of Chester hospital between June 2015 and June 2016. Former Health Secretary Steve Barclay ordered the inquiry in August last year following Letby’s trial, which proved to be one of the longest legal cases in British history.
But a growing movement led by Conservative MP David Davis has called for the inquiry to be postponed amid questions over the safety of Letby’s conviction and the validity of some of the evidence used in her trial. Victims’ families have argued that a decision not to livestream the inquiry hearings will help to fuel the ‘grossly offensive’ conspiracy theories around Letby’s conviction, but Lady Justice Thirlwall ruled in May that doing so would risk breaching court orders protecting the identity of those involved, including all of the babies. The Court of Appeal refused Letby’s application to challenge her conviction in April.
Amid concerns that ‘risky offenders’ will be among those back on Britain’s streets as the government looks to tackle overcrowded prisons, the first inmates are freed on Tuesday (September 10) under the controversial Early Release Scheme. Prisoners serving custodial sentences of less than four years will be eligible for release after 40% of their terms, down from 50%, in a bid to free up space after the prison population reached a record high in August. Despite implementing their own early release measures earlier this year, Conservative MPs have accused Labour of being soft on crime and letting dangerous criminals out on to the street.
While Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood initially claimed the scheme would not include prisoners serving time for serious offences such as rape, the government later conceded some serious offenders would be eligible if they’ve completed a full sentence for a serious crime but are serving a consecutive sentence for a lesser one. With the Chief Inspector of Prisons’ annual report due on the same day as the first releases, Labour will be under pressure to come up with new ways to solve the prison crisis.
The post-election row over the state of the public finances flared up again as soon as MPs returned from summer recess, and two of the most contentious issues in the debate over government spending will be at the forefront of the agenda next week. Labour market statistics published first thing on Tuesday (September 10) will contain earnings data which, according to the BBC, are set to be used to calculate next year’s state pension. With wages forecast to overtake inflation and the government committed to using the triple lock in its calculations, the result could be a significant increase in pension payments at a time when the Treasury is trying to find ways to reduce the welfare burden.
MPs will then get a chance to voice their opposition to one of the government’s most controversial proposals later the same day, when a vote is due on means-testing winter fuel payments. Labour MPs are among those to have criticised the proposal to limit the cold-weather payments, and the vote could end up being a real test of Keir Starmer’s authority (not to mention Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans) with opposition parties likely to be keen to strike a blow in the lead up to the Budget. The publication of the OBR’s latest report on fiscal sustainability on Thursday (September 12), a day after the release of monthly GDP figures on Wednesday (September 11), will also give an indication of just how tough the Chancellor will have to be on October 30.
Looking abroad
Despite a back and forth over the issue of muted mics, on Tuesday (September 10) Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will meet in Philadelphia for their first and possibly only debate ahead of November’s presidential election, viewed as a potentially key moment in the tight race between the two candidates. Democrats have been energized following Biden’s decision to end his candidacy, notably following a calamitous performance during his own debate with Trump back in June, and polling in battleground states now indicates the White House race is very much back in play.
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, has struggled to land significant blows against Harris, and in recent days has had to fend off criticism over the Arlington Cemetery incident. But Trump comes into Tuesday’s debate with the advantage of experience, having already taken part in six presidential debates while this will be Harris’ first. Given the high stakes, it’s perhaps unsurprising that analysts are predicting the debate could set a new record for viewing figures, topping the 84 million who tuned into Trump’s first debate with Hillary Clinton in September 2016.
Mass protests and a general strike were held in Israel this week following the news that the bodies of six hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 and apparently killed as IDF forces neared their location had been recovered. That momentum continues with the weekly rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday as family members urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure an agreement that would see the remaining hostages released. But despite the domestic and international pressure, Netanyahu’s response has been typically defiant, and he remains adamant that continued occupation of the Philadelphi corridor – viewed as a red line for Hamas – is essential and non-negotiable. The situation in Gaza and recent IDF operations in the West Bank, meanwhile, are set to dominate a gathering of Arab League foreign ministers taking place in Cairo on Tuesday (September 10).
Extraordinarily, a World Health Organization campaign to vaccinate some 640,000 Gazan children against polio has been underway amid the fighting, facilitated by ‘area-specific humanitarian pauses’. Assuming all goes to plan, the third and final phase of the initial round of vaccinations is scheduled to in northern Gaza from Monday to Wednesday (September 9-11). A second dose of the vaccine will need to be administered in four weeks’ time.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will have plenty to discuss when he briefs the UN nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors on Monday (September 9), after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv and paying his fifth visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant earlier this week. Grossi was also in Russia last month to visit the Kursk nuclear power plant, the latest potential nuclear catastrophe stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s recent partial occupation of the region. He’ll likely face questions on both visits when he holds a press conference in Vienna later on Monday, as well as on a possible trip to Iran, where new President Masoud Pezeshkian is reportedly open to fresh engagement with the IAEA over Iran’s nuclear programme.