A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the Week
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week as the central bank is almost certain to make its first interest rate cut since 2022 when its decision is announced on Wednesday (September 18). Rates have remained steady between 5.25%-5.50% since July 2023, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said ‘the time has come’ for a cut as inflation has continued to fall, hitting a three-year low this week. The rate cut is expected to be the first of three in the last quarter of the year, with analysts predicting rates will go down by 25 basis points each time – expect questions on next steps at Powell’s post-meeting press conference.
Though the Fed usually leads the way when it comes to rate-setting, it’s been behind the curve this summer; the European Central Bank made its second rate cut yesterday, with mixed views on whether the UK will follow suit on Thursday (September 19), while Canada has made three consecutive cuts since June amid cooling inflation and concerns over the strength of the economy.
President Joe Biden hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for a Quad Summit in Delaware on Saturday (September 21). The personal touch of hosting the leaders in Wilmington – the first time Biden has met foreign leaders in his hometown – may be an effort to make up for the last-minute cancelation of last year’s summit in Australia, when Biden had to stay home to oversee debt ceiling negotiations.
Moving the summit from India, which was due to host this year, will also help cement the elevation of the Quad and its counterbalancing of China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific as part of Biden’s foreign policy legacy as he moves into the final months of his presidency. Leaders will use the gathering, which comes just ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York, to discuss maritime and cyber security, climate change, natural disaster response and infrastructure.
On the campaign trail, Biden is in Philadelphia on Monday (September 16), where early voting is in fact not happening, despite persistent media reports. The first in-person ballots for the November election will be cast on Friday (September 20), when early voting begins in Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota. Early voting was crucial in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic meant most voters opted for mail-in or early ballots, and for many Americans early voting is now easier and more convenient than standing in line on November 5.
That 52% of people say they will vote early this year also means that campaigning over the next two months – including the October 1 vice presidential debate – may come too late to make a difference to swing voters. Whether the candidates will make some last-minute visits next week to try to sway early voters remains to be seen; so far, former President Donald Trump is holding a town hall in Flint, Michigan on Tuesday (September 17) and a rally in Uniondale, New York on Wednesday (September 18), while Vice President Kamala Harris is rumored to be sitting down for an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists.
Looking Abroad
The German government is gearing up for a tense week as new border controls come into effect on Monday (September 16) aimed at tackling illegal migration and bolstering internal security following a series of knife attacks attributed to asylum seekers. The policy has raised serious questions over the future of Europe’s free-movement Schengen Area, which has come under pressure as irregular migration flows have increased and ratcheted up tensions between member states.
The announcement came in the wake of a shock victories for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in state elections in Thuringia and Saxony (where it came second) on September 1. All three parties in Germany’s ruling coalition suffered heavy losses, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, with immigration and fury over the attacks seen as the catalyst for the AfD’s gains. On Sunday (September 22), a third state election is held in Brandenburg, where the AfD now tops the polls and 40% of voters say asylum and immigration are the most important political problem facing the country.
Elections also get underway in Sri Lanka on Saturday (September 21), where President Ranil Wickremesinghe is pushing for re-election against former ally and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and outsider candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The vote is the first since an economic crisis in 2022 saw the country default on its foreign debt amid food and fuel shortages and sky-high inflation, which ultimately led to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and is seen as a referendum on the economic policies Wickremesinghe has implemented to rescue the economy.
Premadasa has pledged to renegotiate the country’s IMF debt restructuring program to ease the burden on the poor, who he says have borne the brunt of austerity measures while the wealthy avoid taxation. Dissanayake, meanwhile, appeals to Sri Lankans eager for a fresh start, with no links to the Rajapakasa family or the United National Party that has dominated Sri Lankan politics since independence.