The big question at this year’s Holyrood elections is whether the SNP can win enough seats to claim a majority and push for a second independence referendum. But the election campaign has been far from a single-issue debate: as with the rest of Britain, the cost of living is front and centre in voters’ minds, while the performance of the NHS and other devolved public services remain key issues for the Scottish electorate.
The SNP has attempted to sway voters with promises of a cap on the cost of ‘essential’ groceries, cheap bus travel and additional funded childcare places. But the IFS says those plans, alongside pledges to cut NHS waiting times, achieve net zero by 2045 and introduce changes to council tax, would require tax rises or funding cuts elsewhere.
Scottish Labour has been ignoring the independence question and has instead focused on the basics for its campaign offerings – growing the economy, fixing the NHS, and building more homes – though a promise to devolve more powers from Holyrood to local councils may be a nod to that debate. But Anas Sarwar’s complicated relationship with Westminster and the national party’s wider decline may hinder his party’s hopes of seriously challenging the SNP for a majority.
On the right, Reform UK has campaigned hard in its first Holyrood election proper; former Tory peer Lord Offord is a slick frontman and the party’s manifesto features some radical policy, including pledges to cut the number of MSPs and reduce the size of the public sector, though several analysts have raised questions over the manifesto’s fiscal credibility.
In a noticeable contrast with the Labour campaign, national leader Kemi Badenoch has been deployed north of the border several times to campaign with the Scottish Conservatives, whose message has centred on the economy and the SNP’s record in government, including spending and handling of issues like the CalMac ferries crisis.
PATH TO MAJORITY
A confident John Swinney told the BBC this month he believes the SNP will secure the 65 seats required for a majority on May 7 and start the journey towards another referendum in 2028. The party came close in 2021, falling one seat shy of the magic number of MSPs, and polling has generally supported the SNP leader’s view; a YouGov MRP released ahead of the BBC interview projected an impressive 67-seat win for the party. A subsequent More in Common poll may have tempered Swinney’s confidence, but the SNP looks set to remain the largest party in Holyrood.
Scottish parliament elections use the additional member system, in which voters choose a constituency MSP based on the first-past-the-post method and also select a political party on the peach ballot used to decide regional representatives. The SNP traditionally wins big on the constituency vote, with opposition parties tending to win more regional seats.
One additional factor in play at this year’s elections is the changes to some constituency and regional boundaries resulting from the Scottish boundary commission’s second review of Holyrood seats. Reflecting shifts in Scotland’s population since the last review in 2010, the recommendations mean 42 out of 73 existing constituencies are changing boundaries and six out eight regions will be different. There are significant changes in Scotland’s two main cities, with the biggest impact potentially occurring in the capital as traditionally safe party wards shift into areas with a different political demographic.
In 2021, the SNP formed a minority administration before entering into a powering-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens: failure to win a majority this year could result see Swinney’s party seeking a similar arrangement.
Previously the opposition at Holyrood, the Scottish Tories are now facing the prospect of the party’s worst-ever performance in an election in Scotland, while Scottish Labour’s high hopes for a return after the 2024 general election and Hamilton by-election victories are now a distant memory. More in Common’s projections show Reform UK making significant gains and taking 20 or more seats, while the Scottish Greens and Scottish Lib Dems are also expected to outperform the bigger parties.
RACES TO WATCH
Inverness and Nairn
The SNP are projected to gain 1.7% of the vote share, taking their projected votes to 47.8%, with candidate Emma Roddick in pole position to hold the seat. Reform’s candidate is Fred Campbell, who famously grew up in a castle.
Edinburgh Central
One of the most high-profile contests in Scotland. SNP candidate Angus Robertson is projected to hold the seat, despite losing a portion of voting share since 2021. Labour’s James Dalgleish faces stern competition from Lorna Slater, whose Green Party is projected to gain an 11% vote share.
Glasgow Southside
Kaukab Stewart runs for the SNP, who are projected to hold the constituency despite losing at least some of their vote share. Rashid Hussain is the Labour candidate, and Gordon Millar runs for Reform, who are expected to gain up to 15% of votes.
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Labour’s Davy Russell won a crucial by-election here in 2025 following the death of Christina McKelvie, who had held the seat for the SNP since 2011. Russell’s thin 602-vote majority means the SNP thinks, with decent voter turnout, new candidate Alex Kerr could regain the constituency just over a year later.
Dumbarton
Jackie Baillie is projected to hold the seat for Labour, who are currently expected to gain 2.6% of the vote share. Sophie Traynor runs for the SNP, and David Smith is the candidate for Reform, who are projected to gain 16.9% of the vote share.
Eastwood
Jackson Carlaw runs in the Conservative constituency, and is challenged by the SNP’s Kirsten Frances Oswald, who is projected to lose 3% of the 35.1% vote share the party enjoyed in 2021. John Mooney runs for Reform, who are currently projected to gain 12.7% of total votes.