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Advance US News Diary

May 22-28: Debt ceiling talks, Oath Keepers sentenced, and Turkish runoff

Rioters storm the US Capitol on Jan 6, 2021
May 19, 2023
  • Slice 1

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.

Leading the week 

President Joe Biden returns to Washington amid positive signals from the House leadership that a deal on the debt ceiling is within reach. Biden scrapped a long-planned Quad meeting in Australia and a historic defense summit with Pacific Island leaders to rush home from the G7 for negotiations as the June 1 default looms. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters yesterday that talks were ‘in a much better place’, and a vote on any deal could come as soon as next week in the House, with the Senate on standby to return from recess with 24 hours’ notice.

Both sides will have to climb down from some of the heated rhetoric from recent weeks to get an agreement over the line: McCarthy said earlier this week that GOP plans for tougher work requirements for welfare recipients would be a ‘red line’ in negotiations, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the proposals a ‘nonstarter’. If a vote is to be held next week, the contours of the deal – and who will need to compromise the most to pass it – should start to become clear this weekend.Joe Biden speaks at a podium in front of a US flag

Five members of the Oath Keepers militia are sentenced in DC this week for their roles in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Navy veteran and self-described ‘goof’ Thomas Caldwell is up on Wednesday (May 24) after being found guilty of obstruction of an official proceeding, but the bigger story is Thursday’s (May 25) sentencing for Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes and leader Kelly Meggs, who were both found guilty of seditious conspiracy. Prosecutors have asked the court to sentence Rhodes to 25 years in prison for his role in the attack, which the jury heard included messages inciting violence and promising a civil war in the wake of the 2020 election. Two more members, Jessica Watkins and Kenneth Harrelson, are sentenced on Friday (May 26).

 


Looking abroad 

Turkey’s presidential election goes to a runoff on Sunday (May 28) after Recep Tayyip Erdogan fell just short of a majority last week with 49.5% of the first-round vote. Despite a fall in popularity over the government’s handling of the economy and the response to February’s devastating earthquakes, Erdogan defied the polls to come out ahead of opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who represents a six-party alliance looking to end Erdogan’s rule after over two decades in power. Kilicdaroglu has spent this week courting the 5.2% of votes won by nationalist candidate and kingmaker Sinan Ogan, swapping his reformist campaign promises of ‘peace and joy’ for a pledge to ‘send all refugees home’ in an effort to appeal to conservative voters. This strategy may cost him votes on the left, particularly with the country’s Kurdish minority, meaning he still faces an uphill battle to topple Erdogan and prevent him from further consolidating power. 

A woman walks in front of posters of Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu

The political crisis in Pakistan will remain in the headlines next week as supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan continue to clash with security forces and Khan’s convoluted legal troubles drag on. Khan was released from custody last week after the Supreme Court ruled his May 9 arrest was illegal and remains at his home in Lahore, which is currently being searched by police for dozens of ‘terrorists’ the government claim Khan is harboring following attacks on military compounds in the wake of his arrest. The Lahore High Court is due to hear a petition on Friday (May 26) to dismiss some 121 cases that have been filed against Khan, including charges of corruption, inciting violence and sedition, while the Islamabad High Court is scheduled to reconsider his bail arrangements the following week. 

Supporters of Imran Khan throw stones at a police water cannon in Lahore

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Supreme Court holds a hearing on Tuesday (May 23) to consider an ongoing dispute over the date for provincial elections in Khan’s home state of Punjab, where the PTI dissolved the assembly in January in an attempt to force early national polls. In a ruling last month, the Supreme Court agreed with the PTI that the vote should take place within 90 days of dissolution and ordered them for May 14, but the Electoral Commission claimed holding elections would be impossible and pushed for the provincial vote to be held alongside the general election in October. The PTI has continued to call for protests in support of fresh elections.


 

Also look out for...

May 22

Tim Scott launches his presidential campaign 

Anthony Blinken visits Papua New Guinea for Pacific Islands Forum summit 

TRO hearing for Jackson, MS crime and policing bill 

Ukrainian Ambassador delivers Boston College commencement address 

EU foreign ministers meet on Ukraine 

UN Security Council discusses Sudan 

G20 working group meets in Kashmir 

May 23

Elon Musk speaks at WSJ CEO Council meeting in London 

Satya Nadella and OpenAI founder at Microsoft Build 

John Roberts honored at American Law Institute dinner 

South Carolina Senate may consider six-week abortion ban 

EU defence ministers meet on Ukraine 

Russian prime minister visits China 

May 24

Ron DeSantis holds donor event in Miami 

Nikki Haley speaks at New Hampshire Politics and Eggs 

Mike Pence visits Iowa 

Man sentenced for breaking into Nancy Pelosi’s office during Jan. 6 riots 

Kentucky officers in court over Breonna Taylor death 

Jens Stoltenberg addresses GMF Brussels Forum 

EU Commission expected to launch European Semester spring package 

One year ago: Uvalde school shooting 

May 25

Ron DeSantis expected to file 2024 campaign paperwork 

US Supreme Court opinion(s) announcement 

Medical board hearing for Indiana doctor in abortion case 

Tom Hanks delivers Harvard commencement address 

Vladimir Putin meets with Armenian and Azeri leaders 

2023 US Hurricane Outlook 

May 26

Oral arguments in JPMorgan lawsuit over Epstein links 

Lloyd Austin delivers Naval Academy commencement address 

Taylor Swift performs in New York 

NCAA basketball champs visit the White House 

May 27

Kamala Harris delivers West Point commencement address 

California Democratic Party convention 

Henry Kissinger turns 100 

Cannes Palme d’Or Award 

May 28

Liz Cheney delivers Colorado College commencement address 

NATO DEFENDER-Europe 23 exercises begin 

Indy 500 

Monaco Grand Prix 

Rolling Thunder First Amendment motorcycle run 

Statistics, reports and results

May 22

OECD report on sovereign borrowing 

JAMA reports on COVID-19 vaccines and adolescent mental health 

May 23

IMF briefing on UK economy 

OECD quarterly GDP growth 

Shell AGM 

Results from: Lowe’s Companies, BJ’s Wholesale Club 

May 24

Marquette Law School poll on SCOTUS 

Amazon ASM 

Results from: Kohl’s, Nvidia 

May 25

Q1 GDP (second estimate) 

Marquette Law School poll on 2024 candidates 

IEA World Energy Investment 2023 report 

Results from: Best Buy, Costco 

May 26

Personal Income & Outlays 

Durable Goods orders 

Anniversaries and Awareness Days

May 22

10 years ago: British soldier Lee Rigby murdered in terror attack

World Goth Day 

May 23

International Day to End Obstetric Fistula 

May 24

European Maritime Day 

100 years ago: Irish Civil War ended 

May 25

Three years ago: George Floyd killed 

Five years ago: Irish abortion referendum 

International Missing Children’s Day 

Africa Day 

Week of Solidarity with Peoples of Non-Self-Governing Territories (to May 31) 

Wear the Lilac Day 

May 26

National Day of Healing (Australia) 

100 years ago: first Le Mans 24-hour race 

May 28

World Hunger Day 

International Day of Action for Women’s Health 

World Blood Cancer Day 


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  • debt ceiling
  • Jan. 6
  • Joe Biden
  • Kevin McCarthy
  • Oath Keepers
  • Pakistan
  • Turkey
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