A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
Having stuck to her promise to stay in the race even if she lost her home state of South Carolina, further heavy losses in next week’s Super Tuesday (March 5) primaries to Donald Trump will put Nikki Haley under yet more pressure to suspend her campaign to allow the party to rally around the presumptive nominee. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be hoping that his margin of victory on Tuesday is enough to ease concerns over the not insignificant protest vote among Democrats in Michigan over his policies regarding the war in Gaza. In addition to the presidential primaries, state primaries are also taking place in California and Texas (as well as in North Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas).
In California, there’s a closely-watched primary to see who will fill Dianne Feinstein’s former seat following her death last year. While there’s interest in the Texas Democratic contest to see who will challenge Ted Cruz in November, the real story is the campaigns being waged by Attorney General Ken Paxton and Governor Greg Abbott against House Republicans who they feel wronged them. Paxton is out for revenge following his impeachment last year, while Abbott is looking to block reelection for a handful of House reps who removed a private school voucher program from an education education bill in January.
Just two days later, on Thursday (March 7), Biden will deliver his final State of the Union before November’s vote, a major moment to point to positive economic news such as low unemployment and falling inflation, legislative achievements like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and CHIPS Act and, on the international stage, strident support for Ukraine and reengagement with the international community on efforts to curtail climate change. Biden will need to tread carefully around his administration’s record on the Israel-Hamas war – his support for Israel has angered many in his own party, as highlighted in the Michigan primary. While the president had hoped to be able to point to a fresh, US-brokered ceasefire from Monday (March 4) as evidence that he’s taking the death toll in Gaza seriously, this now seems increasingly doubtful.
Yesterday, Republicans announced that freshman Alabama Senator Katie Britt will deliver their response this year. The decision to choose the youngest woman in the Senate is likely no accident and an acknowledgment that the fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, including its potential impact on access to IVF treatment, has been an electoral drag for Republicans.
The highlight of the entertainment calendar takes place on Sunday (March 10) when Jimmy Kimmel hosts the 96th Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, which has been nominated in 13 categories, appears set to dominate the night having performed strongly again at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where it picked up gongs for outstanding cast as well as wins for Cillian Murphy for male lead and Robert Downey Jr. for supporting actor. Murphy, a first time Oscar nominee, is now the favorite to pick up best actor, while Nolan, who has never won an Oscar, may well end up winning three on Sunday.
Other films expected to do well include Poor Things, starring Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo and which is nominated in 11 categories, Martin Scorcese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which stars Lily Gladstone and is up for 10 awards, and Polish-British film The Zone of Interest, which has been nominated in five categories. Despite Barbie’s star Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig being snubbed in the most coveted categories, the box-office hit still has eight nominations, including one for Gerwig for Best Adapted Screenplay. Finally, 20 Days In Mariupol, which depicts Russia’s siege of the Ukrainian city in early 2022, is the favorite to win best documentary, the first time The Associated Press has been nominated for an Oscar.
Looking abroad
Despite President Biden’s mooted start date looking unlikely, next week should see continued efforts to secure a pause in fighting ahead of the holy month of Ramadan, which is expected to begin on Sunday (March 10). Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz has suggested that the start of Ramadan was a deadline for Hamas to release Israeli hostages before Israel launches its operation into the southern Gazan city of Rafah, something aid agencies have warned could have catastrophic humanitarian consequences given the city is currently home to some 1.5 million Palestinians who have nowhere else to flee to.
In this context, the annual INSS security conference taking place in Tel Aviv on Thursday (March 7) is likely to be closely watched given the announced list of speakers already includes opposition leader Yair Lapid, war cabinet minister Gadi Eisenkot, and US Ambassador Jacob Lew as well as three unannounced ‘special’ interviews.
Next week also sees China hold its ‘two sessions’, the most important annual meetings in the Chinese political calendar. Proceedings begin with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference on Monday (March 4) followed by the National People’s Congress (NPC) session that opens on Tuesday (March 5), when Premier Li Qiang will deliver his first government work report since his appointment last year. The session, which lasts about a week and ends with a speech from President Xi Jinping, comes amid economic headwinds and follows delays to the Communist Party’s third plenum, when longer-term economic plans were supposed to have been discussed. More information about this year’s NPC session is due to be announced at a press conference on Sunday (March 3).