A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
The final stage of the legislative process for the Rwanda bill begins in the House of Commons on Monday (March 18) when MPs run the rule over changes made in the House of Lords. The start of Parliamentary ping pong should come as a relief to ministers after a drawn-out battle to steer the bill through both houses amid opposition from virtually all sides, but the end of the road will now be in sight with the bill potentially reaching its final form when it’s sent back to the Lords on Wednesday (March 20). And with only a few days of Parliamentary time remaining before the Easter recess, it should be clear by the end of next week if Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s target for the bill to become law will be met and whether we could see deportation flights taking off before an election. That prospect was made more likely yesterday when Sunak ruled out a May 2 poll, amid speculation that legal challenges would delay any Rwanda flights until at least the end of May.
Monthly GDP figures released this week showed the UK economy is beginning to work its way out of the shallow recession it entered last year, and there could be more good news when the ONS publishes the latest data on inflation on Wednesday (March 20). Evidence of a fall in February would be welcome not only for households still struggling with cost pressures on food and energy, but also for the OBR economists who forecast a decline to 2% in the second quarter of this year. But any reduction in inflation is unlikely to be enough to convince policymakers at the Bank of England to announce an interest rate cut on Thursday (March 21); the markets now see June as the likeliest time for cuts from Threadneedle Street and the US Federal Reserve, which is due to announce its latest decision on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the era of negative interest rates in Japan looks set to end when Tokyo’s central bank announces its decision on Tuesday (March 19), after higher-than-expected pay rises were announced this morning.
The Welsh Government is set to undergo a leadership transition next week as outgoing First Minister Mark Drakeford prepares to hand over the reins of government after resigning in December. Following tomorrow’s announcement of the winner of the Welsh Labour leadership contest between Jeremy Miles and Vaughan Gething, Drakeford is expected to hold his last Cabinet meeting on Monday (March 18), before facing his final First Minister’s Questions in a Senedd plenary session on Tuesday (March 19) and submitting his official resignation to the King later in the afternoon.
A Senedd vote to confirm the leadership contest’s victor as the new first minister is then expected to take place on Wednesday (March 20). Although opposition parties may engage in a little parliamentary mischief by nominating their own respective leaders as Drakeford’s replacement, Welsh Labour’s plurality in the Senedd is expected to carry the vote. After the Senedd’s Llywydd (presiding officer) recommends the appointment to the King, the new first minister will then take the Official Oath at the Welsh Government’s headquarters in Cardiff later that day.
Another shocking case of a parent killing their child during the pandemic is back in court on Monday (March 18), when the parents of three-month-old Miyah Warnock are sentenced over her death. Miyah was taken to Bristol Hospital on September 2021 from the family home in Devizes, Wiltshire, but died a month later due to a brain bleed. Her father Samuel Warnock admitted manslaughter in January after initially claiming that bruises on the infant’s body were due to a ‘loss of sensitivity in his hands’ as well as falling down the stairs while holding her. Mum Jasmine Warnock also pleaded guilty to child cruelty after accepting she failed to protect Miyah from assault. Miyah’s death joins a grim and heartbreaking list of cases of children killed in lockdown by abusive parents, including Star Hobson, Arthur Labinjo-Hughes and Alfie Phillips.
Looking abroad
Despite the addition of yet another crisis in the form of the chaos unfolding in Haiti, next week looks to be dominated once again by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, starting on Monday (March 18) when both conflicts are on the agenda for the meeting of EU foreign ministers chaired by High Representative Josep Borrell. Speaking at a session of the UN Security Council in New York this week, Borrell used some of his strongest language to date to condemn the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, accusing Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war.
Former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is due to submit the interim report from her independent investigation into UNRWA on Monday or Tuesday, though it’s unclear whether any findings will be made public ahead of the final report due on April 20. On Tuesday (March 19), US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin chairs the 20th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany following the Biden administration’s announcement of a $300 million weapons package earlier this week. The trip marks Austin’s first international travel since his secretive surgery in December.
Both conflicts will feature prominently when European leaders gather for a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday (March 21-22), where they are expected to call for a ‘sustainable ceasefire’ in Gaza and urge Israel to shelve plans for a ground operation in Rafah. But the final text of their conclusions could still be complicated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who refused to sign their last ceasefire call and held the bloc hostage over funds for Ukraine ahead of their last summit in February. The European Parliament initiated legal action against the European Commission this week over the decision to release €10 billion in frozen funds to Hungary in December to pave the way for opening membership talks with Ukraine. 
Senegal holds a presidential election on Sunday (March 24) which was delayed from February and hastily rescheduled after the country’s top court ruled that a longer postponement was unlawful. Incumbent Macky Sall was praised last July when he surprised many by announcing he would not seek a dubiously legal third term, having pushed through a constitutional reform reducing presidential terms from seven years to five. Sall scrapped the February 25 election date just weeks before the polls amid disputes over the candidate list, but suggestions he might remain in office for months after his term ends on April 2 prompted fears that he might reverse course on a third term, despite the risk of widespread unrest.
Tensions ahead of the election were somewhat eased on Thursday with the release of key opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, who is barred from running, as well as presidential candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who Sonko has endorsed. But if Faye or any other candidate fails to secure more than 50% of vote on Sunday, a runoff will take place three Sundays after the first round results are confirmed, which would be April 14 at the earliest – raising the prospect that Sall could still remain in office beyond the end of his mandate or that the country will be without a head of state for several weeks at a minimum.