A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
Congress returns from the Presidents’ Day recess with the prospect of a partial shutdown once again looming after Friday (March 1), when the first of the two latest continuing resolutions is due to expire. And Speaker Mike Johnson, who continues to struggle to win over his conference, will have even less room for manoeuvre from Wednesday (February 28), when Democrat Tom Suozzi takes up his seat following the closely-watched special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District earlier this month, reducing the Republican majority by one.
Beyond negotiations on avoiding a shutdown, there’s plenty else happening on Capitol Hill next week, including Hunter Biden’s rescheduled deposition as part of the impeachment inquiry on Wednesday, Lloyd Austin’s appearance before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday (February 29) and, in the Senate, a planned committee vote to confirm acting Labor Secretary Julie Su after a previous effort was blocked by Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
The Supreme Court holds two high-profile hearings next week, starting on Monday (February 26) when arguments are scheduled in a pair of cases linked to social media content moderation, both challenges to Republican-passed laws aimed at countering alleged anti-conservative bias on social media platforms. On Wednesday (February 28), arguments are heard in Garland v. Cargill, a case challenging a ban on bump stocks imposed by the Trump administration in the wake of the 2017 mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017, the deadliest in American history. At the core of the case is the question of whether bump stocks, devices that use a gun’s recoil to repeatedly fire the weapon, fall under the definition of a machine gun under federal law.
Despite being expected to lose to Donald Trump in her home state of South Carolina in tomorrow’s GOP primary, Nikki Haley has already announced plans to hold rallies in Michigan and Minnesota on Monday (February 26) and Colorado on Tuesday (February 27) after vowing to stay in the race to avoid a ‘Soviet-style election’. Next week sees Republican and Democratic primaries in Michigan on Tuesday, Republican caucuses in Idaho, Missouri and Michigan on Saturday (March 2), and the Republican primary in DC on Sunday (March 3), though the campaigns will already be looking ahead to Super Tuesday on March 5.
Looking abroad
After a virtual meeting of G7 leaders tomorrow (February 24) marking the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting an in-person summit on support for Kyiv on Monday (February 26). With the war entering its third year, expect leaders to reiterate their long-term commitment to Ukraine’s war effort amid concerns about its ability to hold territory following the recent withdrawal of forces from Avdiivka in Donetsk. But the mood at Monday’s gathering could be somewhat lightened by the fact that lawmakers in Hungary now appear to be set to finally sign off on Sweden’s accession to NATO when they meet for their spring session the same day, completing the Nordic nation’s tortured path to full membership in the wake of Russia’s invasion.
All eyes will then turn to Moscow on Thursday (February 29) for Vladimir Putin’s annual address to Russian lawmakers, his last before elections next month. Putin is likely to strike a typically defiant tone in the face of new sanctions and condemnations following the death of Alexey Navalny last week. Navalny’s widow Yulia is scheduled to address the European Parliament on Wednesday (February 28).
It’s also shaping up to be a significant week in terms of developments in the Middle East following news that US, Israeli, Qatari and Egyptian officials are meeting in Paris today to discuss a potential ceasefire deal. At the International Court of Justice in the Hague, hearings conclude on Monday (February 26) in proceedings over the UN’s request for an advisory opinion on the consequences of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.
Monday also marks the deadline for Israel to report back to the court on compliance with its ruling as part of South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza, as well as the opening of the latest Human Rights Council session, which is likely to be dominated by the conflict. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and a host of ministers are due at the high-level segment in the first days of the session, before a report on the situation in Palestine is discussed on Thursday (February 29). The war is also expected to feature in talks at the three-day Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey from Friday (March 1), when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will deliver a speech.
Meanwhile, elections are scheduled in Iran on Friday (March 1), when voting takes place for both the Islamic Consultative Assembly and – arguably more significantly – the Assembly of Experts, the 88-member body of Islamic jurists who serve eight-year terms and will one day be responsible for appointing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s successor. Observers are predicting a record-low turnout following anti-government protests in recent years sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, pointing to a widening gulf between the hardline regime and a younger, disillusioned electorate. While Khamenei has urged the public to participate in elections as a means of reform, a recent survey suggested over three quarters of Iranians may boycott Friday’s vote.