A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
With immigration back at the forefront of the political agenda following riots in recent weeks, the Home Office’s latest quarterly figures on immigration and irregular migration drop on Thursday (August 22), giving politicians of all stripes a chance to talk about the underlying causes of this month’s disorder. The Conservatives will use high numbers to jump on the government’s decisions to close asylum seeker camps and abandon the controversial Rwanda scheme – especially in the wake of news over 700 migrants arrived by small boat last weekend – while Labour will point to the rise in immigration throughout the Tories’ 14-year tenure and their failure to reduce numbers while they were in power.
Waiting in the wings is the Reform Party, whose leaders have attacked both parties over what they have described as ‘mass immigration’. Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have both batted away suggestions they were responsible for inciting anti-immigration sentiments during the riots, and the criticisms are unlikely to temper their language next week.
In fact, the party may get another chance to roll out their controversial thoughts on so-called ‘two-tier policing’ as the Notting Hill Carnival gets underway on the bank holiday Sunday and Monday (August 25-26) amid concerns over knife crime in the capital and a number of stabbings at the carnival in recent years. Farage suggested last year that the event ‘simply can’t continue’, while Reform’s justice spokesperson Anne Widdicombe accused police of treating the carnival with a ‘light touch’, despite the Met carrying out nearly 800 stop-and-searches in 2023.
Households are bracing for news that the energy price cap will increase for the first time this year after Ofgem announces its latest change to default tariffs on Friday (August 23). Reductions to the cap in April and July still failed to reduce average bills to pre-energy crisis levels, and the cap is now forecast to rise by 10% to £1,723 for the final three months of this year due to an increase in wholesale costs. Gas and electricity prices were also cited as a factor in this week’s uptick in inflation, which is now forecast to continue rising over the coming months and into 2025, leaving households facing the prospect of dealing with the double whammy of rising bills and post-Budget tax increases in the New Year.
Looking abroad
Democrats descend on Chicago next week for a very different Democratic National Convention than planned – instead of crowning Joe Biden as their candidate after months of primary voting, delegates will instead watch Kamala Harris accept the party’s nomination alongside her vice presidential nominee Tim Walz. The convention kicks off at the United Center on Monday (August 19), and though the official speaker list has been kept under wraps so far, Biden is expected to speak on the opening day alongside Hillary Clinton. Monday will also see the first of two major protests planned during the convention, as thousands of pro-Palestine activists march through the city calling on the Democrats to end US aid to Israel. A second march is planned for Thursday (August 22) as the convention wraps up.
On Tuesday (August 20), when the likes of Barack Obama and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker are expected to take the stage, Harris will travel up the I-94 to Milwaukee for a rally in the swing state, reportedly being held at the Fiserv Forum, where the Republicans held their own convention last month. Walz will then address the penultimate day of the convention on Wednesday (August 21), with former President Bill Clinton also expected to speak, before Harris formally accepts the nomination on Thursday (August 22).
Following a flurry of diplomatic activity this week aimed at negotiating a ceasefire and hostage-return agreement as well as halting any Iranian retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, next week will look to see whether any of those efforts have borne fruit. There are suggestions Iran will hold off on attacking Israel until it sees the results of negotiations that are ongoing in Doha, so the outcome of today’s talks will help set the news agenda for next week.
While the world waits on those developments, there are a few dates to look ahead to: the UN Security Council is due to discuss Lebanon on Monday (August 19) and the Middle East on Thursday (August 22), while Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah traditionally uses the Shia commemoration of Arba’in on Sunday (August 25) to deliver a speech on the importance of resistance. We could also see travel to the region from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who postponed a planned trip this week amid ‘uncertainty about the situation’, as the US looks to help get a deal over the line.
In Ukraine, all eyes are on the fallout from Kyiv’s surprise incursion into Russia, which continued yesterday with the capture of the town of Sudzha. Friday (August 23) happens to be the 81st anniversary of the end of the Battle of Kursk, which Russian President Vladimir Putin marked last year in the village of Ponyri – a stark contrast he won’t welcome.
As both sides look to gain momentum on the ground, the week is full of symbolic opportunities: Russia celebrates Flag Day on Thursday (August 22), which in recent years has included ceremonies in the annexed Crimean cities of Sevastopol and Simferopol, while Ukraine marks its Flag Day on Friday, followed by Independence Day celebrations on Saturday (August 24) featuring an address from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
And while nothing has been confirmed officially, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely expected to pay his first visit to Ukraine on Friday, following a visit to Moscow last month which Zelenskyy called a ‘huge disappointment and devastating blow to peace efforts.’