A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News. Delivered to your inbox on Fridays.
Leading the week
Despite receiving an early boost in the shape of higher-than-expected growth figures on July 11, the new government will be under no illusions about the size of the task required to turn around the UK economy. An improved growth forecast from the IMF was tempered by a warning about the impact of lingering inflation, before the publication of a set of reports by the National Audit Office this week painted a grim picture of wasteful spending on major programmes by the previous administration. One of Rachel Reeves’ first actions as chancellor was to commission analysis from the Treasury on what she called the new government’s spending inheritance, with the intention of making clear to Parliament and the electorate that any tough decisions taken on taxation and public spending would have to be made in the context of previous governments’ fiscal missteps.
That report is due to be published on Monday (July 29), and Reeves is expected to reveal a £20 billion hole in the public coffers which has put some public services at risk of collapse and implies the need for future tax rises. The IFS think tank has suggested the options available to Reeves include changes to tax reliefs, pensions and capital gains, but we’ll have to wait until Budget – which Reeves is expected to confirm will be presented alongside an OBR spending review in October – to find out exactly what measures she’ll take to plug the fiscal holes. While the start of the week is likely to be dominated by arguments over who’s responsible for the dire state of the economy, there could be better news on Thursday (August 1) when the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces the first interest rate decision of Reeves’ tenure as chancellor, with markets viewing the chance that policymakers will announce the first rate cut in four years as a coin-flip.
The starting gun for the Conservative leadership contest was fired this week with confirmation that the process will last through summer and into conference season, with a replacement for Rishi Sunak not due to be announced until November. First out of the blocks in the race was former home secretary James Cleverly, who launched his bid to become the leader of the opposition with a promise to unite the Conservative Party and overturn Keir Starmer’s ‘loveless landslide’. Former security minister Tom Tugendhat followed Cleverly by announcing his candidacy with a familiar-sounding pitch for greater control over UK borders, and Robert Jenrick’s entry is expected to be followed by a flurry of candidates from the right of the party – likely including Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel – before nominations close on Monday (July 29). Mel Stride, who joined the fray this morning, is likely to compete with Tugendhat for the moderate vote and it wouldn’t be a Tory leadership contest without at least one left-field candidate so a surprise entry over the weekend is a possibility. But the four candidates to make it through to the first ballot in September are highly likely to come from within that cohort of former ministers, setting up a potential race to the right among nominees over the coming summer.
Following disappointments at Wimbledon and the Euros, British hopes now turn to the Olympics in Paris. Another good haul of medals is expected for Team GB, continuing a recent run of success stretching back to the 2012 Olympic Games in London. One of Britain’s most recognised athletes and flagbearer Tom Daley is aiming to bring home a consecutive Olympic gold in the men’s synchronised diving on Monday (July 29). Fellow flagbearer and two-time Olympic champion rower Helen Glover is heavily fancied to add to her tally of golds in the women’s fours on Thursday (August 1), with her team having gone the entire year unbeaten. The fantastically named Delicious Orie is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Team GB Olympic gold medal winner Anthony Joshua in the super heavyweight boxing division. A familiar name if not face to many is Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix, who begins her campaign on Wednesday (July 31) in the synchro event. Spendolini-Sirieix, the daughter of First Dates maitre d’ Fred, is predicted to have a very good chance after winning commonwealth gold. Capping off the week are the sprint finals on Saturday and Sunday (August 3 and 4), with Dina Asher-Smith looking to claim her first Olympic gold after wins in the British 200m and European 100m this year. Team GB hope to crown their first men’s 100m medallist since Linford Christie in 1992 with 22-year-old Louie Hinchliffe. The Sheffield native won the NCAA Championships 100m title after transferring to the University of Houston.
Looking abroad
After the Democratic National Convention confirmed plans to proceed with a virtual roll call to formally select the party’s presidential nominee in the wake of President Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign, next week is likely put to rest any doubts as to whether Vice President Kamala Harris will take on Donald Trump in November. Speculation of a meaningful challenge had already pretty much evaporated on Monday as a slate of potential rivals announced their endorsements for the former California Senator, and by the time of her rally in Wisconsin the following day she was able to announce that she secured enough delegates to clinch the party’s nomination. The DNC then confirmed the outline of the virtual nomination process and, barring a last-minute challenge, voting on Harris’s nomination is set to begin on Thursday (August 1).
With Harris now the presumptive nominee and the coveted endorsement from former President Barack Obama secured, attention has shifted to who she will choose as a running mate before the DNC’s August 7 deadline for the ticket to be confirmed. Three names appear to be on the shortlist: former astronaut and now Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, former Pennsylvania Attorney General and now Governor Josh Shapiro, and outgoing North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (pronounced Kuə-per). An announcement on her pick could come as early as next week, rounding off an extraordinary moment in an already-extraordinary campaign.